Segunda · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Burgos vs Castellón (Segunda, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Burgos 35%, the draw 32% and Castellón 33%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | No |
| Burgos win | 35% | Pick |
| Draw | 32% | |
| Castellón win | 33% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Burgos season stats · Castellón season stats · Segunda table and form
League. Segunda has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Burgos 5 of 10 (3 of 6 at home), Castellón 4 of 10 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 42% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1 (Burgos) v 0.98 (Castellón) give 32%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.