1. Lig · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Bodrum FK vs Ümraniyespor (1. Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Bodrum FK 50%, the draw 30% and Ümraniyespor 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| Bodrum FK win | 50% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Ümraniyespor win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodrum FK | 11 | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Ümraniyespor | 11 | 36% | 18% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 50% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodrum FK | 58% | 72% | 50 |
| Ümraniyespor | 68% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Bodrum FK season stats · Ümraniyespor season stats · 1. Lig table and form
League. 1. Lig has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Bodrum FK 4 of 11 (2 of 6 at home), Ümraniyespor 4 of 11 (2 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.31 (Bodrum FK) v 0.71 (Ümraniyespor) give 33%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 45%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.