Liga Profesional · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Boca Juniors vs River Plate (Liga Profesional, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Boca Juniors 46%, the draw 30% and River Plate 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Boca Juniors win | 46% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| River Plate win | 24% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 30 | 40% | 17% | 53% |
| River Plate | 33 | 36% | 21% | 39% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | 60% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 22% | 21% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 35% | 34% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 44% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 64% | 72% | 50 |
| River Plate | 68% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 61% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Boca Juniors season stats · River Plate season stats · Liga Profesional table and form
League. Liga Profesional has had over 2.5 goals in 35% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Boca Juniors 12 of 30 (3 of 15 at home), River Plate 12 of 33 (4 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 38% and 36%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 37% and 36%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 36%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 36%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.24 (Boca Juniors) v 0.83 (River Plate) give 34%; 30% weight: 35%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 38%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.