NWSL (W) · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 22:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Bay FC W vs San Diego Wave W (NWSL (W), Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Bay FC W 21%, the draw 25% and San Diego Wave W 54%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Bay FC W win | 21% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| San Diego Wave W win | 54% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC W | 28 | 50% | 36% | 46% |
| San Diego Wave W | 28 | 43% | 21% | 46% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC W | 76% | 76% | 50 |
| San Diego Wave W | 72% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Bay FC W season stats · San Diego Wave W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form
League. NWSL (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Bay FC W 14 of 28 (7 of 14 at home), San Diego Wave W 12 of 28 (7 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 49% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.92 (Bay FC W) v 1.64 (San Diego Wave W) give 47%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.