Süper Lig · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Başakşehir vs Samsunspor (Süper Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Başakşehir 62%, the draw 21% and Samsunspor 17%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Başakşehir win | 62% | Pick |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Samsunspor win | 17% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 61% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 8 | 63% | 38% | 50% |
| Samsunspor | 8 | 50% | 38% | 38% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 61% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 74% | 84% | 50 |
| Samsunspor | 70% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Başakşehir season stats · Samsunspor season stats · Süper Lig table and form
League. Süper Lig has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Başakşehir 5 of 8 (3 of 5 at home), Samsunspor 4 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 53%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.13 (Başakşehir) v 1.02 (Samsunspor) give 61%; 30% weight: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.