Serie B · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Avellino vs Pisa (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Avellino 30%, the draw 25% and Pisa 45%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Avellino win | 30% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Pisa win | 45% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Avellino season stats · Pisa season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Avellino 4 of 7 (3 of 4 at home), Pisa 6 of 7 (3 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.32 (Avellino) v 1.66 (Pisa) give 57%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.