Virsliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Auda vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Auda 54%, the draw 26% and FS Jelgava 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Auda win | 54% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| FS Jelgava win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 33 | 48% | 21% | 55% |
| FS Jelgava | 33 | 42% | 30% | 42% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 78% | 78% | 50 |
| FS Jelgava | 76% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Auda season stats · FS Jelgava season stats · Virsliga table and form
League. Virsliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Auda 16 of 33 (8 of 17 at home), FS Jelgava 14 of 33 (10 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 11 meetings in 3 years, 36% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.6 (Auda) v 0.87 (FS Jelgava) give 45%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.