Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 20:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Atletico Grau vs Universitario (Primera Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Atletico Grau 32%, the draw 30% and Universitario 38%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Atletico Grau win | 32% | |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Universitario win | 38% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 30 | 37% | 30% | 40% |
| Universitario | 30 | 63% | 33% | 60% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 60% | 74% | 50 |
| Universitario | 58% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Atletico Grau season stats · Universitario season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Atletico Grau 11 of 30 (5 of 15 at home), Universitario 19 of 30 (10 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.05 (Atletico Grau) v 1.18 (Universitario) give 39%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.