La Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Athletic Club 35%, the draw 25% and Real Sociedad 39%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Athletic Club win | 35% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Real Sociedad win | 39% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 8 | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| Real Sociedad | 9 | 78% | 56% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 49% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 68% | 78% | 50 |
| Real Sociedad | 76% | 90% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Athletic Club season stats · Real Sociedad season stats · La Liga table and form
League. La Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 51% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Athletic Club 3 of 8 (2 of 4 at home), Real Sociedad 7 of 9 (4 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.43 (Athletic Club) v 1.51 (Real Sociedad) give 56%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.