FA WSL (W) · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W (FA WSL (W), Sunday, 1 November 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Arsenal W 70%, the draw 19% and Aston Villa W 11%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Arsenal W win | 70% | Pick |
| Draw | 19% | |
| Aston Villa W win | 11% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 64% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W | 6 | 17% | 17% | 50% |
| Aston Villa W | 6 | 50% | 33% | 83% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 41% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 64% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal W | 76% | 80% | 50 |
| Aston Villa W | 76% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 79% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Arsenal W season stats · Aston Villa W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form
League. FA WSL (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Arsenal W 1 of 6 (0 of 3 at home), Aston Villa W 3 of 6 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 54%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 59%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 57%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.18 (Arsenal W) v 0.73 (Aston Villa W) give 56%; 30% weight: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.