Serie B · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Arezzo vs Ascoli (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Arezzo 36%, the draw 29% and Ascoli 35%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Arezzo win | 36% | |
| Draw | 29% | Pick |
| Ascoli win | 35% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Arezzo season stats · Ascoli season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Arezzo 5 of 7 (2 of 3 at home), Ascoli 2 of 7 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.2 (Arezzo) v 1.18 (Ascoli) give 43%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.