Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 23:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with Albion FC 37%, the draw 25% and Deportivo Maldonado 38%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| Albion FC win | 37% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Deportivo Maldonado win | 38% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albion FC | 34 | 59% | 32% | 62% |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 33 | 42% | 21% | 48% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 47% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 46% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albion FC | 74% | 74% | 50 |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 66% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Albion FC season stats · Deportivo Maldonado season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 43% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Albion FC 20 of 34 (13 of 17 at home), Deportivo Maldonado 14 of 33 (6 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.48 (Albion FC) v 1.52 (Deportivo Maldonado) give 58%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.