Superliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates AF Elbasani vs Laci (Superliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with AF Elbasani 55%, the draw 26% and Laci 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| AF Elbasani win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Laci win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF Elbasani | 7 | 57% | 14% | 100% |
| Laci | 8 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | 65% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 24% | 26% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 46% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF Elbasani | 60% | 72% | 50 |
| Laci | 58% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: AF Elbasani season stats · Laci season stats · Superliga table and form
League. Superliga has had over 2.5 goals in 38% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. AF Elbasani 4 of 7 (1 of 3 at home), Laci 3 of 8 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 38%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 38%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 40%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 39%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.55 (AF Elbasani) v 0.79 (Laci) give 42%; 30% weight: 40%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.