Segunda · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:15 UK time
CompactStats rates AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon (Segunda, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with AD Ceuta FC 32%, the draw 28% and Sporting Gijon 41%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| AD Ceuta FC win | 32% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Sporting Gijon win | 41% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 60% | 30% | 70% |
| Sporting Gijon | 10 | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 80% | 64% | 50 |
| Sporting Gijon | 70% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: AD Ceuta FC season stats · Sporting Gijon season stats · Segunda table and form
League. Segunda has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. AD Ceuta FC 6 of 10 (3 of 6 at home), Sporting Gijon 3 of 10 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 44%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.14 (AD Ceuta FC) v 1.33 (Sporting Gijon) give 45%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.