Primeira Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Academico Viseu 40%, the draw 28% and Rio Ave 31%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Academico Viseu win | 40% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Rio Ave win | 31% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | 8 | 63% | 25% | 50% |
| Rio Ave | 8 | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu | 68% | 68% | 50 |
| Rio Ave | 76% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Academico Viseu season stats · Rio Ave season stats · Primeira Liga table and form
League. Primeira Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Academico Viseu 5 of 8 (3 of 4 at home), Rio Ave 4 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 53%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.28 (Academico Viseu) v 1.1 (Rio Ave) give 43%; 30% weight: 51%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 52%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.