Veikkausliiga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates AC Oulu vs KuPS (Veikkausliiga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with AC Oulu 18%, the draw 27% and KuPS 55%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| AC Oulu win | 18% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| KuPS win | 55% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 53% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 49% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: AC Oulu season stats · KuPS season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form
League. Veikkausliiga has had over 2.5 goals in 60% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. AC Oulu 11 of 28 (5 of 14 at home), KuPS 10 of 28 (4 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 49% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 43% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.71 (AC Oulu) v 1.49 (KuPS) give 38%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.