1. Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød (1. Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Aarhus Fremad 56%, the draw 24% and Hillerød 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Aarhus Fremad win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Hillerød win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 74% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad | 11 | 45% | 18% | 55% |
| Hillerød | 12 | 33% | 25% | 58% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 74% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 35% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad | 63% | 70% | 43 |
| Hillerød | 80% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Aarhus Fremad season stats · Hillerød season stats · 1. Division table and form
League. 1. Division has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Aarhus Fremad 5 of 11 (4 of 6 at home), Hillerød 4 of 12 (1 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.78 (Aarhus Fremad) v 0.97 (Hillerød) give 52%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.