Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Zaglebie Lubin at 51%, the draw at 28% and Korona Kielce at 21%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zaglebie Lubin have 5 in 11 this season (2 of 6 at home), Korona Kielce 4 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.83 for Korona Kielce. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 11 | 45% | 27% | 55% |
| Korona Kielce | 11 | 36% | 18% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Ekstraklasa rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 48%). Zaglebie Lubin's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Korona Kielce's last 50, 74% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Zaglebie Lubin season stats · Korona Kielce season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.