National League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Worthing at 47%, the draw at 26% and Sutton Utd at 27%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Worthing have 10 in 13 this season (5 of 7 at home), Sutton Utd 5 in 13 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Worthing and 1.13 for Sutton Utd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 13 | 77% | 54% | 77% |
| Sutton Utd | 13 | 38% | 8% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The National League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 74% with a first-half goal, from 155 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). Worthing's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Sutton Utd's last 50, 70% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 48%, first 29%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Worthing season stats · Sutton Utd season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.