Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Wieczysta Kraków at 29%, the draw at 26% and Jagiellonia at 44%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wieczysta Kraków have 8 in 11 this season (3 of 4 at home), Jagiellonia 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.5 for Jagiellonia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 73% | 27% | 73% |
| Jagiellonia | 10 | 60% | 30% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Ekstraklasa rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 79% and 48%). Wieczysta Kraków's last 48 games had a first-half goal 69% of the time and a second-half goal 85%; Jagiellonia's last 50, 70% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Wieczysta Kraków season stats · Jagiellonia season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.