2. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Wacker Innsbruck at 39%, the draw at 27% and Austria Vienna (Am) at 34%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wacker Innsbruck have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 4 at home), Austria Vienna (Am) 6 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Wacker Innsbruck and 1.26 for Austria Vienna (Am). Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacker Innsbruck | 9 | 44% | 22% | 33% |
| Austria Vienna (Am) | 9 | 67% | 44% | 56% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). Wacker Innsbruck's last 41 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 85%; Austria Vienna (Am)'s last 50, 84% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 32%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Wacker Innsbruck season stats · Austria Vienna (Am) season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.