2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 63%, the draw at 19% and VfL Osnabrück at 17%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfL Wolfsburg have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), VfL Osnabrück 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.35 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.16 for VfL Osnabrück. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 63% | 38% | 75% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The 2. Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 84% and 48%). VfL Wolfsburg's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; VfL Osnabrück's last 50, 72% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: VfL Wolfsburg season stats · VfL Osnabrück season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.