3. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Verl at 54%, the draw at 24% and SV Wehen at 22%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Verl have 8 in 10 this season (5 of 5 at home), SV Wehen 5 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Verl and 1.05 for SV Wehen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The 3. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 44% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 100 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 82% and 53%). Verl's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; SV Wehen's last 50, 70% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Verl season stats · SV Wehen season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.