Meistriliiga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Vaprus at 28%, the draw at 25% and Paide at 48%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.68.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vaprus have 21 in 32 this season (10 of 16 at home), Paide 17 in 32 (9 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Vaprus and 1.68 for Paide. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 80% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 43% of two or more. The Meistriliiga rates, last season and this season combined, are 82% and 45% (this season so far: 77% with a first-half goal, from 161 games). After the break: 84% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 83% and 49%). Vaprus's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Paide's last 50, 74% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 67%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 34%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Vaprus season stats · Paide season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.