1. Lig · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 10:30. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Vanspor FK at 34%, the draw at 31% and Sarıyer at 34%, from expected goals of 1.01 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vanspor FK have 5 in 11 this season (1 of 6 at home), Sarıyer 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.01 for Vanspor FK and 1.01 for Sarıyer. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 11 | 45% | 27% | 55% |
| Sarıyer | 11 | 45% | 9% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The 1. Lig rates, last season and this season combined, are 71% and 37% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 109 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 80% and 50%). Vanspor FK's last 50 games had a first-half goal 58% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Sarıyer's last 50, 64% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Vanspor FK season stats · Sarıyer season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.