J2 League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 05:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The J2 League average is 46%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Vanraure Hachinohe at 23%, the draw at 28% and Montedio Yamagata at 49%, from expected goals of 0.85 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vanraure Hachinohe have 5 in 12 this season (1 of 6 at home), Montedio Yamagata 3 in 12 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 36% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 0.85 for Vanraure Hachinohe and 1.37 for Montedio Yamagata. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 42% | 25% | 25% |
| Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 25% | 0% | 17% |
Our numbers give this match a 65% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 29% of two or more. The J2 League rates are 67% and 30%. After the break: 74% for a goal and 37% for two or more (league 76% and 40%). Vanraure Hachinohe's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 64%; Montedio Yamagata's last 50, 64% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Vanraure Hachinohe season stats · Montedio Yamagata season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.