Liga 2 · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga 2 average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts União de Leiria at 34%, the draw at 26% and AVS at 40%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. União de Leiria have 3 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), AVS 3 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.34 for União de Leiria and 1.46 for AVS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria | 7 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| AVS | 7 | 43% | 14% | 57% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The Liga 2 rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 27% (this season so far: 75% with a first-half goal, from 63 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 75% and 41%). União de Leiria's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; AVS's last 50, 66% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 54% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: União de Leiria season stats · AVS season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.