Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiere Ligue (W) average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Toulouse W at 34%, the draw at 25% and Saint-Malo W at 41%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Toulouse W have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Saint-Malo W 1 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Toulouse W and 1.63 for Saint-Malo W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse W | 5 | 100% | 80% | 60% |
| Saint-Malo W | 5 | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Our numbers give this match a 80% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Premiere Ligue (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 87% with a first-half goal, from 30 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 79% and 51%). Toulouse W's last 5 games had a first-half goal 100% of the time and a second-half goal 100%; Saint-Malo W's last 5, 100% and 40%. A goal in both halves: 62% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 32%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Toulouse W season stats · Saint-Malo W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.