Cymru Premier · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:15. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts The New Saints at 63%, the draw at 20% and GAP Connah S Quay FC at 17%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. The New Saints have 8 in 13 this season (4 of 7 at home), GAP Connah S Quay FC 9 in 13 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 89%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.21 for The New Saints and 1.06 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 13 | 62% | 54% | 38% |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 69% | 23% | 54% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The Cymru Premier rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 38% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 104 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 77% and 50%). The New Saints's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; GAP Connah S Quay FC's last 50, 72% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: The New Saints season stats · GAP Connah S Quay FC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.