Serie A (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 11:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Serie A (W) average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Ternana W at 37%, the draw at 25% and Como 1907 W at 38%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ternana W have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Como 1907 W 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Ternana W and 1.51 for Como 1907 W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana W | 3 | 67% | 0% | 67% |
| Como 1907 W | 3 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Serie A (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 68% and 32% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 18 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 75% and 42%). Ternana W's last 27 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Como 1907 W's last 3, 100% and 100%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 53%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Ternana W season stats · Serie A (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.