2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Darmstadt 98 at 49%, the draw at 24% and 1. FC Magdeburg at 27%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Darmstadt 98 have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), 1. FC Magdeburg 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.79 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 8 | 63% | 13% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The 2. Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 84% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 84% and 48%). SV Darmstadt 98's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; 1. FC Magdeburg's last 50, 76% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 62% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: SV Darmstadt 98 season stats · 1. FC Magdeburg season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.