2. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Sturm Graz II at 42%, the draw at 22% and Voitsberg at 36%, from expected goals of 1.91 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sturm Graz II have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Voitsberg 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.91 for Sturm Graz II and 1.75 for Voitsberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 9 | 78% | 78% | 67% |
| Voitsberg | 9 | 67% | 44% | 89% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). Sturm Graz II's last 50 games had a first-half goal 84% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Voitsberg's last 42, 79% and 79%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 32%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Sturm Graz II season stats · Voitsberg season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.