League One · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Stockport County at 68%, the draw at 18% and AFC Wimbledon at 14%, from expected goals of 2.47 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stockport County have 6 in 11 this season (4 of 6 at home), AFC Wimbledon 5 in 11 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.47 for Stockport County and 1.05 for AFC Wimbledon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 11 | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 45% | 18% | 27% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The League One rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 31% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 126 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 43% for two or more (league 82% and 44%). Stockport County's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; AFC Wimbledon's last 50, 66% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 29%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Stockport County season stats · AFC Wimbledon season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.