Pro League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:15. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Pro League average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Standard Liege at 54%, the draw at 28% and Kortrijk at 18%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Standard Liege have 5 in 8 this season (1 of 4 at home), Kortrijk 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Standard Liege and 0.71 for Kortrijk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 8 | 63% | 38% | 63% |
| Kortrijk | 8 | 63% | 13% | 13% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 77% and 46%). Standard Liege's last 50 games had a first-half goal 60% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Kortrijk's last 50, 76% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 52% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 31%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Standard Liege season stats · Kortrijk season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.