3. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 31%, the draw at 27% and Hansa Rostock at 42%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SSV Jahn Regensburg have 8 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Hansa Rostock 5 in 10 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.21 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.45 for Hansa Rostock. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 10 | 80% | 60% | 70% |
| Hansa Rostock | 10 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The 3. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 44% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 100 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 82% and 53%). SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Hansa Rostock's last 50, 74% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: SSV Jahn Regensburg season stats · Hansa Rostock season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.