First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Spartak Varna at 34%, the draw at 26% and Arda Kardzhali at 40%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spartak Varna have 4 in 11 this season (1 of 6 at home), Arda Kardzhali 5 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Spartak Varna and 1.47 for Arda Kardzhali. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 11 | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 45% | 36% | 55% |
Our numbers give this match a 65% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The First League rates, last season and this season combined, are 64% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 76 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 38% for two or more (league 75% and 38%). Spartak Varna's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Arda Kardzhali's last 50, 66% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 53% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 28%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Spartak Varna season stats · Arda Kardzhali season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.