Pro League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts SK Beveren at 21%, the draw at 24% and Union St. Gilloise at 54%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SK Beveren have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Union St. Gilloise 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 0.99 for SK Beveren and 1.73 for Union St. Gilloise. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | 8 | 63% | 38% | 25% |
| Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 63% | 38% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 77% and 46%). SK Beveren's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Union St. Gilloise's last 50, 64% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: SK Beveren season stats · Union St. Gilloise season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.