Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 85%, the draw at 11% and Obolon'-Brovar at 4%, from expected goals of 2.81 and 0.46.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shakhtar Donetsk have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Obolon'-Brovar 4 in 9 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.81 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.46 for Obolon'-Brovar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 9 | 56% | 11% | 33% |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 44% | 22% | 22% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 71 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 76% and 41%). Shakhtar Donetsk's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Obolon'-Brovar's last 50, 66% and 64%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 27%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Shakhtar Donetsk season stats · Obolon'-Brovar season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.