First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First League average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Septemvri Sofia at 23%, the draw at 22% and Lokomotiv Sofia at 55%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 2.04.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Septemvri Sofia have 7 in 11 this season (4 of 6 at home), Lokomotiv Sofia 6 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Septemvri Sofia and 2.04 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 64% | 18% | 55% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 55% | 36% | 82% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 28% of two or more. The First League rates, last season and this season combined, are 64% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 76 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 75% and 38%). Septemvri Sofia's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Lokomotiv Sofia's last 50, 72% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Septemvri Sofia season stats · Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.