Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts SCR Altach at 56%, the draw at 23% and Ried at 21%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SCR Altach have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), Ried 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.83 for SCR Altach and 1.04 for Ried. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCR Altach | 9 | 67% | 11% | 33% |
| Ried | 9 | 67% | 44% | 89% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 39% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 78% and 45%). SCR Altach's last 50 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 66%; Ried's last 50, 72% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 53% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 32%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: SCR Altach season stats · Ried season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.