Serie A (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:45. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A (W) average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Sassuolo W at 33%, the draw at 38% and Parma W at 29%, from expected goals of 0.77 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sassuolo W have 2 in 3 this season (2 of 2 at home), Parma W 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 19%, from expected goals of 0.77 for Sassuolo W and 0.71 for Parma W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo W | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Parma W | 3 | 67% | 0% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Serie A (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 68% and 32% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 18 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 75% and 42%). Sassuolo W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Parma W's last 50, 64% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 53%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Sassuolo W season stats · Parma W season stats · Serie A (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.