Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Samgurali at 57%, the draw at 24% and Spaeri at 19%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Samgurali have 19 in 29 this season (9 of 15 at home), Spaeri 18 in 29 (9 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Samgurali and 0.94 for Spaeri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The Erovnuli Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 68% and 35% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 145 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 83% and 42%). Samgurali's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Spaeri's last 37, 84% and 81%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 30%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Samgurali season stats · Spaeri season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.