HNL · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The HNL average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Rudes at 10%, the draw at 12% and Dinamo Zagreb at 78%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 3.37.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rudes have 9 in 10 this season (5 of 5 at home), Dinamo Zagreb 7 in 9 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Rudes and 3.37 for Dinamo Zagreb. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudes | 10 | 90% | 60% | 70% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 43% of two or more. The HNL rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 77% and 41%). Rudes's last 46 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Dinamo Zagreb's last 50, 84% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 31%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Rudes season stats · Dinamo Zagreb season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.