Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Rosengård W at 52%, the draw at 26% and Växjö W at 23%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 0.96.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosengård W have 8 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Växjö W 15 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Rosengård W and 0.96 for Växjö W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosengård W | 22 | 36% | 14% | 50% |
| Växjö W | 22 | 68% | 32% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Damallsvenskan (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 79% and 43% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 154 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 83% and 54%). Rosengård W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Växjö W's last 50, 84% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 65%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 32%, level 22% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Rosengård W season stats · Växjö W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.