J3 League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 06:05. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The J3 League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Renofa Yamaguchi at 55%, the draw at 24% and Kitakyushu at 21%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 0.96.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Renofa Yamaguchi have 5 in 12 this season (1 of 5 at home), Kitakyushu 7 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Renofa Yamaguchi and 0.96 for Kitakyushu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 42% | 17% | 33% |
| Kitakyushu | 12 | 58% | 33% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 65% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 28% of two or more. The J3 League rates are 67% and 34%. After the break: 76% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 76% and 42%). Renofa Yamaguchi's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Kitakyushu's last 50, 54% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 47% (league 49%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Renofa Yamaguchi season stats · Kitakyushu season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.