Segunda · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Segunda average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Real Sociedad II at 24%, the draw at 25% and Girona at 51%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Real Sociedad II have 7 in 10 this season (2 of 5 at home), Girona 4 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Real Sociedad II and 1.72 for Girona. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II | 10 | 70% | 60% | 80% |
| Girona | 10 | 40% | 10% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Segunda rates, last season and this season combined, are 68% and 34% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 110 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 75% and 45%). Real Sociedad II's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Girona's last 50, 76% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 52%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Real Sociedad II season stats · Girona season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.