2. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Rapid Wien II at 30%, the draw at 24% and FC Liefering at 46%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.76.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rapid Wien II have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), FC Liefering 9 in 9 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Rapid Wien II and 1.76 for FC Liefering. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Wien II | 9 | 56% | 33% | 56% |
| FC Liefering | 9 | 100% | 89% | 78% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). Rapid Wien II's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; FC Liefering's last 50, 78% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Rapid Wien II season stats · FC Liefering season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.