Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Raków Częstochowa at 29%, the draw at 27% and Pogon Szczecin at 44%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Raków Częstochowa have 10 in 11 this season (6 of 6 at home), Pogon Szczecin 3 in 10 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.48 for Pogon Szczecin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 91% | 36% | 91% |
| Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 30% | 20% | 40% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Ekstraklasa rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 79% and 48%). Raków Częstochowa's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Pogon Szczecin's last 50, 78% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Raków Częstochowa season stats · Pogon Szczecin season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.