Premijer Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Premijer Liga average is 38%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | no pick |
The result model puts Radnik Bijeljina at 36%, the draw at 28% and Siroki Brijeg at 36%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Radnik Bijeljina have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Siroki Brijeg 5 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 38%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.22 for Radnik Bijeljina and 1.21 for Siroki Brijeg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 70% | 50% | 90% |
| Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 50% | 10% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 63% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The Premijer Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 59% and 28% (this season so far: 61% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 69% for a goal and 33% for two or more (league 71% and 32%). Radnik Bijeljina's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 60%; Siroki Brijeg's last 50, 66% and 66%. A goal in both halves: 43% (league 42%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 30%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Radnik Bijeljina season stats · Siroki Brijeg season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.