Premyer Liqa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premyer Liqa average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Qabala at 11%, the draw at 20% and Qarabag at 69%, from expected goals of 0.7 and 2.09.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qabala have 4 in 8 this season (3 of 5 at home), Qarabag 3 in 7 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 0.7 for Qabala and 2.09 for Qarabag. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Premyer Liqa rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 31% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 46 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 74% and 47%). Qabala's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Qarabag's last 50, 66% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 47% (league 48%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 31%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Qabala season stats · Qarabag season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.